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Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN vs KC · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 16.5 · median of 7 books ·
52Signal · under 16.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
- RJ Harvey RB is listed Out (knee). He had 17% of DEN's targets this season, 4.7 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.8 a game recently
- vs KC · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 19.9 yds against 16.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -36 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | WAS | 8 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 5 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 29 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 26 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 10 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 10 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 10 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 6 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 13 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ARI | 53 over | +36.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 16.5
- DraftKings 15.5
- DK Pick6 15.5
- BetMGM 16.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 16.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 16.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 16.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ ARI | 53 | over |
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 26 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 29 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 85 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 69 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 24 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 12 | under |