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Bo Nix
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETCarries · 3.5 ·
47Signal · over 3.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
PrizePicks 3.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.7 a game recently
Expected carries: 3.7 against 3.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 7 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 9 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 8 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 4 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +1.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
3.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 8 | over |