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Mo Alie-Cox
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 5.5 at PrizePicks · median 4.5 ·
58Signal · over 5.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
- Tyler Warren TE is listed Out (groin). He had 22% of IND's targets this season, 7.2 a game over 5.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.3 a game recently → 2.7 this game
- Warren out · +1.4 targets (20% of his 7.2)
- vs MIN · ×0.99 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×0.82 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 17.2 yds against 5.5 · over 58%, under 42%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | PIT | 0 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 0 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 0 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | SF | 16 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | JAX | 20 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | HOU | 22 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 16 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 14 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 1 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 4.5
- Underdog 4.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 5.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 14 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 16 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ HOU | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs JAX | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | vs SF | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 20 | over |