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Najee Harris
NYG vs ARI · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 3.5 · median of 2 books
56Signal · under 3.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 5Cleared the number in 2 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads tonight
- targets: 0.4 a game recently → 0.5 tonight
- RB2 on the depth chart (usually RB3) · ×1.15 targets
- vs ARI · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 4.1 yds against 3.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Sep 5, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -16 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-05 | KC | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-09-15 | LV | 20 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | DEN | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | LA | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TEN | 0 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | |||
| Last 10 | 3 / 5 | 60% under | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | |||
| This season (with DPB Pro) | |||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | |||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
3.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs TEN | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-21 | @ LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ LV | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | vs KC | 5 | over |