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Nate Boerkircher
JAX vs HOU · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceiving Yards · 5.5 · median of 7 books ·
54Signal · over 5.575% · 3 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 4Cleared the number in 3 of 4 games, 6 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs HOU · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 10.6 yds against 5.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | CLE | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NE | 0 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CIN | 15 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI | 20 over | +14.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 4 | 75% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 75% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.57 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · PX2 · BR · BB · PP· best price at 5.5: DK -106
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 20 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 9 | over |