← NFL board
Nate Boerkircher
JAX @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 · median of 5 books ·
56Signal · under 1.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 7Cleared the number in 3 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.3 against 1.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 5, 2026
Worst miss -0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | CLE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NE | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | HOU | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | IND | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-11-05 | BAL | 2 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
1.55 books, no line disagreementDK · HR · FD · FL · DAB
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | @ BAL | 2 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs IND | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs HOU | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 1 | under |