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Nico Collins
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 68.5 · median of 12 books ·
47Signal · over 68.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.5 a game recently
- vs NYG · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 80.3 yds against 68.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 68.5 · Nov 20, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -13| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | BUF | 55 under | −13.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | IND | 98 over | +29.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | KC | 121 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 85 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 59 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 57 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 75 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 118 over | +49.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 56 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 74 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12 books · 6 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 64.5
- ESPN Bet 64.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 66.5 -114
- FanDuel 68.5 -114
- BetMGM 68.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 68.5 -115
- Fliff 68.5 -120
- PrizePicks 68.5
- betPARX 69.5 -112
- BetRivers 69.5 -113
- Bally Bet 69.5 -117
- Underdog 69.5
- Fanatics 70.5 -110
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 74.5 to 68.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 68.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 74 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 56 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 118 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 75 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 57 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 59 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 85 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 121 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 98 | over |
| 2025-11-20 | vs BUF | 55 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ TEN | 92 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs JAX | 136 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 75 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 27 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 79 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 104 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 25 | under |