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Oronde Gadsden II
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 17.5 at BetMGM · median 15.5 ·
44Signal · over 17.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.5 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.91 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 15.6 yds against 17.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -17| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | KC | 61 over | +43.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DAL | 7 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | HOU | 32 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DEN | 23 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ARI | 32 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 18 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 36 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 17 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 15.5 · best price ESPN -110
- ESPN Bet 15.5 -110 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 15.5 -111 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 15.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 15.5 -115 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 15.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 15.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 16.5 -112
- BetRivers 16.5 -113
- Bally Bet 16.5 -117
- BetMGM 17.5 -111
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 18 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ARI | 32 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ DEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs HOU | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DAL | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ KC | 61 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | vs PHI | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LV | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ JAX | 41 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs PIT | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ TEN | 68 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | vs MIN | 77 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs IND | 164 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ MIA | 68 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs WAS | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NYG | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DEN | 46 | over |