← NFL board
Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETCompletions · 20 at PrizePicks · median 20.5 ·
48Signal · over 2056% · 5 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 9Cleared the number in 5 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.6 a game recently
Expected completions: 21.0 against 20 · over 48%, under 52% (if it doesn't land exactly on 20)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 20 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -6| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 29 over | +9.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 29 over | +9.0 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 23 over | +3.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 14 under | −6.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 16 under | −4.0 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 15 under | −5.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 32 over | +12.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 20 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 15 under | −5.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 23 over | +3.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% over | +1.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the over: 20
- PrizePicks 20 (easiest number)
- betPARX 20.5 +106
- BetRivers 20.5 +105
- Bally Bet 20.5 +100
- ESPN Bet 20.5 -105
- DraftKings 20.5 -107
- Fanatics 20.5 -110
- Fliff 20.5 -110
- Hard Rock Bet 20.5 -110
- BetMGM 20.5 -120
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 19.5 to 20
- Bally BetMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- betPARXMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- BetRiversMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- FanaticsMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- FliffMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 23 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 20 | push |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 32 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 29 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 29 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 26 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 22 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 24 | over |