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Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETInterceptions Thrown · 0.5 at Fliff ·
46Signal · over 0.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.6 a game recently
Expected interceptions thrown: 0.6 against 0.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.510 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · ESPN · FL · HR · PX2 · BR · BB · PP · UD· best price at 0.5: MGM -115
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 0 | under |