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Patrick Mahomes

KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ET

Pass Attempts · 31.5 at Fliff ·

53Signal · over 31.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
3 straight under

How the formula reads this game

  • pass attempts: 31.6 a game recently

Expected pass attempts: 31.6 against 31.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 31.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -7.5
31.52025-11-16 at DEN: 45, over 31.5 by 13.545DEN2025-11-23 vs IND: 46, over 31.5 by 14.546IND2025-11-27 at DAL: 34, over 31.5 by 2.534DAL2025-12-07 vs HOU: 33, over 31.5 by 1.533HOU2025-12-14 vs LAC: 28, under 31.5 by 3.528LAC2026-09-14 vs DEN: 27, under 31.5 by 4.527DEN2026-09-20 vs IND: 47, over 31.5 by 15.547IND2026-09-27 at MIA: 24, under 31.5 by 7.524MIA2026-10-04 at LV: 30, under 31.5 by 1.530LV2026-10-18 vs LAC: 30, under 31.5 by 1.530LAC
Each game against 31.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-16DEN45 over+13.5
2025-11-23IND46 over+14.5
2025-11-27DAL34 over+2.5
2025-12-07HOU33 over+1.5
2025-12-14LAC28 under−3.5
2026-09-14DEN27 under−4.5
2026-09-20IND47 over+15.5
2026-09-27MIA24 under−7.5
2026-10-04LV30 under−1.5
2026-10-18LAC30 under−1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 105 / 1050%+2.9
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Away (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

7 books · 1 spread
  • betPARX 31.5
  • Bally Bet 31.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 31.5
  • ESPN Bet 31.5
  • Fliff 31.5
  • PrizePicks 32
  • DraftKings 32.5

Line movement

  • FliffMoved from 30.5 to 31.5
  • PrizePicksMoved from 30.5 to 32
  • DraftKingsMoved from 30.5 to 32.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 31.5
2026-10-18vs LAC30under
2026-10-04@ LV30under
2026-09-27@ MIA24under
2026-09-20vs IND47over
2026-09-14vs DEN27under
2025-12-14vs LAC28under
2025-12-07vs HOU33over
2025-11-27@ DAL34over
2025-11-23vs IND46over
2025-11-16@ DEN45over
2025-11-02@ BUF34over
2025-10-27vs WAS34over
2025-10-19vs LV35over
2025-10-12vs DET30under
2025-10-06@ JAX41over
2025-09-28vs BAL37over
2025-09-21@ NYG37over
2025-09-14vs PHI29under
2025-09-05@ LAC39over