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Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 at DraftKings ·
52Signal · under 1.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.6 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.510 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · MGM · FD · HR · FL · BB · PX2 · BR · FAN
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 1 | under |