Quentin Johnston

LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 33.5 at PrizePicks ·

55Signal · under 33.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

3 straight over

PrizePicks 33.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

targets: 4.4 a game recently
vs LA · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 32.6 yds against 33.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 33.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -33

Each game against 33.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-16	JAX	0 under	−33.5
2025-11-30	LV	23 under	−10.5
2025-12-08	PHI	8 under	−25.5
2025-12-21	DAL	104 over	+70.5
2025-12-27	HOU	98 over	+64.5
2026-09-13	ARI	17 under	−16.5
2026-09-20	LV	7 under	−26.5
2026-09-27	BUF	40 over	+6.5
2026-10-04	SEA	44 over	+10.5
2026-10-18	KC	57 over	+23.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

33.5PrizePicks· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 33.5
2026-10-18	@ KC	57	over
2026-10-04	@ SEA	44	over
2026-09-27	@ BUF	40	over
2026-09-20	vs LV	7	under
2026-09-13	vs ARI	17	under
2025-12-27	vs HOU	98	over
2025-12-21	@ DAL	104	over
2025-12-08	vs PHI	8	under
2025-11-30	vs LV	23	under
2025-11-16	@ JAX	0	under
2025-11-09	vs PIT	42	over
2025-11-02	@ TEN	53	over
2025-10-19	vs IND	30	under
2025-10-05	vs WAS	40	over
2025-09-28	@ NYG	98	over
2025-09-21	vs DEN	89	over
2025-09-15	@ LV	71	over
2025-09-05	vs KC	79	over