Shedeur Sanders

CLE @ NO · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 20.5 at DraftKings · median 19.5 ·

58Signal · under 20.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 1.7 a game recently

Expected rushing yards: 15.4 yds against 20.5 · over 42%, under 58%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 20.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -28 on the under

Each game against 20.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-16	BAL	16 under	−4.5
2025-11-23	LV	-1 under	−21.5
2025-11-30	SF	6 under	−14.5
2025-12-07	TEN	29 over	+8.5
2025-12-14	CHI	24 over	+3.5
2025-12-21	BUF	49 over	+28.5
2025-12-28	PIT	20 under	−0.5
2026-01-04	CIN	26 over	+5.5
2026-09-27	CAR	0 under	−20.5
2026-11-01	PIT	0 under	−20.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% under	+4
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

6 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 20.5

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 20.5
2026-11-01	@ PIT	0	under
2026-09-27	vs CAR	0	under
2026-01-04	@ CIN	26	over
2025-12-28	vs PIT	20	under
2025-12-21	vs BUF	49	over
2025-12-14	@ CHI	24	over
2025-12-07	vs TEN	29	over
2025-11-30	vs SF	6	under
2025-11-23	@ LV	-1	under
2025-11-16	vs BAL	16	under