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Stefon Diggs
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at DraftKings ·
51Signal · under 4.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.6 a game recently → 8.1 this game
- WR1 on the depth chart (usually WR2) · ×1.07 targets
Expected receptions: 5.1 against 4.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | NYG | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 9 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PHI | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DAL | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SEA | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | IND | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 6 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spread
- betPARX 3.5
- BetRivers 3.5
- Bally Bet 3.5
- PrizePicks 4
- FanDuel 4.5
- BetMGM 4.5
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5
- ESPN Bet 4.5
- DraftKings 4.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs SEA | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PHI | 4 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 6 | over |