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Theo Johnson
NYG @ PHI · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 at betPARX ·
50Signal · over 0.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.3 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 0.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | CHI | 7 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | GB | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | DET | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | NE | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | WAS | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIN | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DAL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | LA | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | ARI | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | WAS | 2 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +1.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
0.58 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · DK · ESPN · FD · HR · FL · BB· best price at 0.5: PX2, BR -215
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ WAS | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs ARI | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | @ LA | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs DAL | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-01 | @ NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DET | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs GB | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CHI | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SF | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PHI | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DEN | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-09 | vs PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NO | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs LAC | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs KC | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ WAS | 1 | over |