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Tommy Tremble
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 16.5 at Fliff ·
50Signal · under 16.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.8 a game recently
- vs TB · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 25.4 yds against 16.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -29 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 2 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 13 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 6 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 6 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 38 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 25 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 4 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 41 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 12 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 46 over | +29.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 16.5
- DraftKings 15.5
- DK Pick6 15.5
- ESPN Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 16.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 16.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 16.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 16.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 16.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 16.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 16.5 to 15.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 46 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 12 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 41 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 25 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 54 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 39 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 42 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 2 | under |