← NFL board3 straight over
Tommy Tremble
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at DraftKings ·
55Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.0 against 1.5 · over 55%, under 45%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 4 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 1.5 · best price DK -192
- DraftKings 1.5 -192 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 1.5 -200 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 1.5 -200 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 1.5 -200 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 1.5 -205 (easiest number)
- betPARX 2.5 +138
- BetRivers 2.5 +138
- Bally Bet 2.5 +133
- Fliff 2.5 +130
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 3 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 1 | under |