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Tony Pollard
TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 9.5 ·
67Signal · under 9.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
PrizePicks 9.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
- vs CLE · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 3.9 yds against 9.5 · over 33%, under 67%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 9.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -12 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 8 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 10 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 17 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | -1 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 1 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 22 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 2 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 0 under | −9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | -1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 17 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 13 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 11 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 12 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 14 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 29 | over |