Treylon Burks

WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 23.5 at Fliff · median 22.5 ·

51Signal · under 23.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.4 a game recently → 3.6 this game
WR3 on the depth chart (usually WR4+) · ×1.07 targets
vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 33.0 yds against 23.5 · over 49%, under 51%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 23.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -42 on the under

Each game against 23.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	MIN	0 under	−23.5
2025-12-14	NYG	0 under	−23.5
2025-12-20	PHI	30 over	+6.5
2025-12-25	DAL	11 under	−12.5
2026-01-04	PHI	12 under	−11.5
2026-09-20	DAL	0 under	−23.5
2026-09-27	SEA	13 under	−10.5
2026-10-04	IND	47 over	+23.5
2026-10-11	NYG	26 over	+2.5
2026-10-19	SF	66 over	+42.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% under	+3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

7 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 24.5

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 23.5
2026-10-19	@ SF	66	over
2026-10-11	vs NYG	26	over
2026-10-04	vs IND	47	over
2026-09-27	vs SEA	13	under
2026-09-20	@ DAL	0	under
2026-01-04	@ PHI	12	under
2025-12-25	vs DAL	11	under
2025-12-20	vs PHI	30	over
2025-12-14	@ NYG	0	under
2025-12-07	@ MIN	0	under
2025-11-30	vs DEN	5	under
2025-11-09	vs DET	58	over
2025-11-02	vs SEA	14	under