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Troy Franklin
DEN vs KC · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 12.5 · median of 8 books ·
43Signal · over 12.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
- RJ Harvey RB is listed Out (knee). He had 17% of DEN's targets this season, 4.7 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs KC · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 10.7 yds against 12.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 12.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -12| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 85 over | +72.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 66 over | +53.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 17 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 0 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 0 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 27 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 21 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 16 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 2 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ARI | 0 under | −12.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 12.5 · best price MGM -115
- BetMGM 12.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 12.5 -116 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 12.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 12.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -115
- Fliff 13.5 -120
- FanDuel 14.5 -113
- Underdog 14.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ ARI | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 21 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 27 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 17 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 85 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 84 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 40 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 27 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 89 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 19 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 35 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 55 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 89 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 44 | over |