Tyler Goodson

DAL vs TB · Thu 8:15 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 21.5 at Underdog ·

70Signal · under 21.5100% · 9 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance

0 / 9

9 straight under

Underdog 21.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 2.5 a game recently
targets: 0.7 a game recently
vs TB · ×1.01 yds per carry
vs TB · ×1.03 yds per target

Expected rush + rec yards: 8.4 yds against 21.5 · over 15%, under 85%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 21.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026

Tightest clearance +5 on the under

Each game against 21.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
2025-09-21	TEN	6 under	−15.5
2025-09-28	LA	0 under	−21.5
2025-10-26	TEN	2 under	−19.5
2025-11-02	PIT	8 under	−13.5
2025-11-09	ATL	4 under	−17.5
2025-12-22	SF	9 under	−12.5
2026-01-04	HOU	3 under	−18.5
2026-09-27	BAL	17 under	−4.5
2026-10-04	HOU	12 under	−9.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	9 / 9	100% under	+15
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.

Book Range

21.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 21.5
2026-10-04	@ HOU	12	under
2026-09-27	vs BAL	17	under
2026-01-04	@ HOU	3	under
2025-12-22	vs SF	9	under
2025-11-09	vs ATL	4	under
2025-11-02	@ PIT	8	under
2025-10-26	vs TEN	2	under
2025-09-28	@ LA	0	under
2025-09-21	@ TEN	6	under