Tyler Shough

NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ET

Carries · 3.5 at Fliff ·

54Signal · under 3.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 3.5 a game recently

Expected carries: 3.5 against 3.5 · over 46%, under 54%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -3.5

Each game against 3.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	CAR	8 over	+4.5
2025-12-21	NYJ	2 under	−1.5
2025-12-28	TEN	4 over	+0.5
2026-01-04	ATL	3 under	−0.5
2026-09-13	DET	4 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	BAL	9 over	+5.5
2026-09-27	LV	1 under	−2.5
2026-10-05	ATL	2 under	−1.5
2026-10-11	MIN	0 under	−3.5
2026-10-18	NYG	5 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

3.55 books, no line disagreementDK · FL · HR · PX2 · BB

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 3.5
2026-10-18	@ NYG	5	over
2026-10-11	vs MIN	0	under
2026-10-05	vs ATL	2	under
2026-09-27	vs LV	1	under
2026-09-20	@ BAL	9	over
2026-09-13	@ DET	4	over
2026-01-04	@ ATL	3	under
2025-12-28	@ TEN	4	over
2025-12-21	vs NYJ	2	under
2025-12-14	vs CAR	8	over
2025-12-07	@ TB	7	over
2025-11-30	@ MIA	6	over
2025-11-23	vs ATL	7	over
2025-11-09	@ CAR	4	over
2025-11-02	@ LA	1	under
2025-10-26	vs TB	3	under
2025-09-21	@ SEA	0	under