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Tyler Shough
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETCompletions · 23.5 at Fliff · median 22.5 ·
49Signal · over 23.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 39.2 a game recently
Expected completions: 25.5 against 23.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 23.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 24 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 32 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 22 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 23 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 35 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 27 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 29 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 30 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 16 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 16 under | −7.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +1.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 22.5 · best price MGM -125
- BetMGM 22.5 -125 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 22.5 -136 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 22.5 -137 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 22.5 -141 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 22.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 23.5 -105
- Fanatics 23.5 -110
- Fliff 23.5 -110
- DraftKings 23.5 -111
- Underdog 23.5
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 23.5 to 22.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 21.5 to 22.5
- FliffMoved from 22.5 to 23.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 23.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 30 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 29 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 27 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 35 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 26 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 0 | under |