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Tyler Shough
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETRushing Yards · 16.5 at DraftKings · median 14.5 ·
55Signal · under 16.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.5 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 17.3 yds against 16.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 32 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 8 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 6 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 34 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 8 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 23 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 36 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 5 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 0 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 32 over | +15.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 4 yds spread
- FanDuel 13.5
- PrizePicks 13.5
- betPARX 14.5
- BetRivers 14.5
- Bally Bet 14.5
- Fliff 14.5
- Hard Rock Bet 14.5
- DraftKings 16.5
- ESPN Bet 17.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
- betPARXMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
- BetRiversMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
- FliffMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 15.5 to 16.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 32 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 23 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 8 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 55 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | -3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 0 | under |