← NFL board
Aaron Jones
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 14.5 at BetRivers ·
56Signal · under 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.6 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 14.4 yds against 14.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -19 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 22 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 31 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 8 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 34 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 34 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 4 under | −10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
14.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · FD · BR · HR · DK · BB · FL · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 31 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 16 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 20 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 15 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 44 | over |