← NFL board4 straight over
Aaron Jones
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 40.5 · median of 9 books ·
55Signal · over 40.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 19.4 a game recently
- vs IND · ×0.98 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 80.8 yds against 40.5 · over 55%, under 45%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -37| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 3 under | −37.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 76 over | +35.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 34 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 85 over | +44.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 53 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 40 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 105 over | +64.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 58 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 94 over | +53.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 113 over | +72.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +26 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 39.5
- Underdog 39.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 40.5 -113
- BetRivers 40.5 -114
- DraftKings 40.5 -114
- FanDuel 40.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5 -115
- Bally Bet 40.5 -118
- PrizePicks 40.5
- Fliff 41.5 -120
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 113 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 94 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 58 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 105 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 40 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 53 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 85 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 34 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 76 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 41 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 70 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 47 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 78 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 15 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 23 | under |