Aaron Jones

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 41.5 at Fliff · median 40.5 ·

54Signal · over 41.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

7 / 10

4 straight over

How the formula reads this game

carries: 19.4 a game recently
vs IND · ×0.98 yds per carry

Expected rushing yards: 80.8 yds against 41.5 · over 54%, under 46%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 41.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -38

Each game against 41.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-30	SEA	3 under	−38.5
2025-12-07	WAS	76 over	+34.5
2025-12-14	DAL	34 under	−7.5
2025-12-21	NYG	85 over	+43.5
2025-12-25	DET	53 over	+11.5
2026-09-13	GB	40 under	−1.5
2026-09-20	CHI	105 over	+63.5
2026-09-27	TB	58 over	+16.5
2026-10-04	MIA	94 over	+52.5
2026-10-11	NO	113 over	+71.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% over	+25
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

9 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 39.5

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 41.5
2026-10-11	@ NO	113	over
2026-10-04	vs MIA	94	over
2026-09-27	@ TB	58	over
2026-09-20	@ CHI	105	over
2026-09-13	vs GB	40	under
2025-12-25	vs DET	53	over
2025-12-21	@ NYG	85	over
2025-12-14	@ DAL	34	under
2025-12-07	vs WAS	76	over
2025-11-30	@ SEA	3	under
2025-11-23	@ GB	41	under
2025-11-16	vs CHI	70	over
2025-11-09	vs BAL	47	over
2025-11-02	@ DET	78	over
2025-10-23	@ LAC	15	under
2025-09-14	vs ATL	23	under
2025-09-08	@ CHI	23	under