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Adam Trautman
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 0.5 · median of 5 books ·
70Signal · over 0.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
9 / 10Cleared the number in 9 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.1 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.08 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 14.2 yds against 0.5 · over 79%, under 21%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Oct 5, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss 0| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | PHI | 11 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 25 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | KC | 8 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | WAS | 47 over | +46.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 17 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 14 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 24 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 10 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 0 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 9 / 10 | 90% over | +15 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 0.5 · best price DK +101
- DraftKings 0.5 +101 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 0.5 +100 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 0.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 0.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 2.5 +118
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 47 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 11 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 32 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 5 | over |