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AJ Barner
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 24.5 · median of 11 books ·
56Signal · under 24.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
- vs KC · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 23.1 yds against 24.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 24.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -44 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 27 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 49 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 43 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 14 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 13 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 8 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 69 over | +44.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 12 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 20 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 16 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 25.5
- ESPN Bet 23.5
- betPARX 24.5
- DraftKings 24.5
- BetRivers 24.5
- FanDuel 24.5
- Bally Bet 24.5
- Hard Rock Bet 24.5
- Fliff 24.5
- PrizePicks 24.5
- Underdog 24.5
- BetMGM 25.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- FanDuelMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- FliffMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 20 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 12 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 69 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 27 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 70 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 24 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 71 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 53 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 32 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 26 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 0 | under |