Ashton Dulin

IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 0.5 at PrizePicks ·

51Signal · over 0.556% · 5 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 9

Tyler Warren TE is listed Out (groin). He had 22% of IND's targets this season, 7.2 a game over 5.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

targets: 2.4 a game recently

Expected receptions: 1.1 against 0.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026

Worst miss -0.5

Each game against 0.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
2025-09-07	MIA	0 under	−0.5
2025-09-28	LA	1 over	+0.5
2025-10-05	LV	2 over	+1.5
2025-10-26	TEN	1 over	+0.5
2025-11-09	ATL	0 under	−0.5
2025-11-23	KC	1 over	+0.5
2026-01-04	HOU	0 under	−0.5
2026-09-13	BAL	0 under	−0.5
2026-10-04	WAS	3 over	+2.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 9	56% over	+0.4
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 56% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

0.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 0.5
2026-10-04	@ WAS	3	over
2026-09-13	vs BAL	0	under
2026-01-04	@ HOU	0	under
2025-11-23	@ KC	1	over
2025-11-09	vs ATL	0	under
2025-10-26	vs TEN	1	over
2025-10-05	vs LV	2	over
2025-09-28	@ LA	1	over
2025-09-07	vs MIA	0	under