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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 20.5 · median of 8 books ·
54Signal · under 20.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected completions: 20.3 against 20.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 20.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -12.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 9 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 18 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 14 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 19 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 18 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 33 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 16 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 23 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 21 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 17 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 20.5
- betPARX 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- BetMGM 20.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 20.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 20.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 20.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 20.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 21 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 23 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 33 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 29 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 17 | under |