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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 · median of 9 books ·
63Signal · under 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 0.7 against 1.5 · over 37%, under 63%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.59 books, no line disagreementFD · DK · MGM · ESPN · FL · HR · BB · PX2 · BR
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 3 | over |