Ben Yurosek

MIN vs BUF · Mon 8:15 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 3.5 at FanDuel ·

59Signal · over 3.5100% · 4 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 4

4 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.5 a game recently
vs BUF · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 13.6 yds against 3.5 · over 59%, under 41%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 3.5 · Oct 23, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Tightest clearance +2

Each game against 3.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-10-23	LAC	5 over	+1.5
2026-01-04	GB	9 over	+5.5
2026-10-11	NO	10 over	+6.5
2026-11-01	DET	24 over	+20.5

The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 4	100% over	+9
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

4 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 2.5

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 3.5
2026-11-01	@ DET	24	over
2026-10-11	@ NO	10	over
2026-01-04	vs GB	9	over
2025-10-23	@ LAC	5	over