← NFL board4 straight over
Ben Yurosek
MIN vs BUF · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
50Signal · over 0.5100% · 4 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 4Cleared the number in 4 of 4 games, 6 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 0.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Oct 23, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-10-23 | LAC | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | GB | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DET | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 4 | 100% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.54 books, no line disagreementHR · FD · DK · FL· best price at 0.5: HR -135
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DET | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 1 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs GB | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 1 | over |