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Brian Thomas Jr.
JAX vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 11.5 at PrizePicks ·
48Signal · over 11.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
PrizePicks 11.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.2 a game recently → 2.6 this game
- WR4+ on the depth chart (usually WR3) · ×0.83 targets
- vs IND · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 14.7 yds against 11.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | NYJ | 66 over | +54.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DEN | 18 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | IND | 39 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | TEN | 49 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CLE | 40 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DEN | 40 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NE | 8 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CIN | 17 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | HOU | 0 under | −11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +16 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DEN | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 40 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs TEN | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ IND | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DEN | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs NYJ | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs IND | 87 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TEN | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LV | 55 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LA | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SEA | 90 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | vs KC | 80 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ SF | 49 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs HOU | 55 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ CIN | 49 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs CAR | 11 | under |