← NFL board
Brock Bowers
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 at betPARX · median 6.5 ·
52Signal · over 5.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 7.0 against 5.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 17, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | DAL | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | CLE | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LAC | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 10 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 4 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 5.5 · best price PX2, BR -162
- betPARX 5.5 -162 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 5.5 -162 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 5.5 -167 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 6.5 +116
- Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +115
- BetMGM 6.5 +110
- ESPN Bet 6.5 +110
- Fliff 6.5 +110
- DraftKings 6.5 +109
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 5.5 to 6.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 12 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 5 | under |