← NFL board5 straight over
Tre Tucker
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 · median of 11 books ·
51Signal · over 40.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 61.3 yds against 40.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -40| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 0 under | −40.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 43 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 49 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 30 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 27 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 119 over | +78.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 43 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 44 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 41 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 97 over | +56.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 39.5
- PrizePicks 39.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 39.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 40.5 -113
- betPARX 40.5 -114
- FanDuel 40.5 -114
- BetMGM 40.5 -115
- BetRivers 40.5 -115
- ESPN Bet 40.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5 -115
- Bally Bet 40.5 -120
- Fliff 40.5 -120
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 38.5 to 39.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 38.5 to 40.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 39.5 to 40.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 97 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 41 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 44 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 43 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 119 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 27 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 47 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 38 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 33 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 70 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 62 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 145 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 54 | over |