← NFL board5 straight over
Bryce Young
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 35 at PrizePicks · median 34.5 ·
52Signal · over 3556% · 5 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 9Cleared the number in 5 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 40.2 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 40.2 against 35 · over 52%, under 48% (if it doesn't land exactly on 35)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 35 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -15| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 20 under | −15.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 24 under | −11.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 32 under | −3.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 24 under | −11.0 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 35 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 37 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 36 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 48 over | +13.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 41 over | +6.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 39 over | +4.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% over | -1.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 34.5 · best price DK -118
- DraftKings 34.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 34.5 -120 (easiest number)
- betPARX 34.5 -127 (easiest number)
- Fliff 34.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 34.5 -134 (easiest number)
- Underdog 34.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 35
- BetMGM 35.5 -105
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 39 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 41 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 48 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 37 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 35 | push |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 24 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 32 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 29 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 20 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 25 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 25 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 24 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 55 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 35 | push |