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Bryce Young
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 11.5 at DraftKings · median 10.5 ·
69Signal · under 11.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.8 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 5.0 yds against 11.5 · over 31%, under 69%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -37 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 23 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 49 over | +37.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 20 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 27 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | -1 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 6 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 3 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 6 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 11.5
- PrizePicks 9.5
- FanDuel 10.5
- Fliff 10.5
- Hard Rock Bet 10.5
- DraftKings 11.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 10.5 to 9.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | -1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 27 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 49 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | -1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 40 | over |