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C.J. Stroud
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 21.5 · median of 9 books ·
50Signal · over 21.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.5 a game recently
Expected completions: 23.8 against 21.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 22 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 23 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 14 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 26 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 30 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 21 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 26 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 24 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 21.5 · best price PX2 -104
- betPARX 21.5 -104 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 21.5 -105 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 21.5 -109 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 21.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 21.5 -131 (easiest number)
- Fliff 21.5 -135 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 21.5 -140 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 21.5 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 22.5 +100
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 26 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 21 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 30 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 26 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 23 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 19 | under |