← NFL board3 straight over
C.J. Stroud
HOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 255.5 · median of 10 books ·
50Signal · over 255.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.5 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 285.7 yds against 255.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 255.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -88| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | ARI | 260 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LV | 187 under | −68.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | LAC | 244 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | IND | 169 under | −86.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BUF | 274 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CIN | 353 over | +97.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | IND | 167 under | −88.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAL | 347 over | +91.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | TEN | 261 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | JAX | 312 over | +56.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 254.5 · best price BB, PX2 -113
- Bally Bet 254.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 254.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 254.5 -114 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 254.5 -115 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 255.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 255.5 -115
- Fliff 255.5 -120
- PrizePicks 255.5
- DraftKings 256.5 -110
- BetMGM 256.5 -115
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 249.5 to 255.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 255.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ JAX | 312 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ TEN | 261 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DAL | 347 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ IND | 167 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CIN | 353 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BUF | 274 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs IND | 169 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ LAC | 244 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LV | 187 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs ARI | 260 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ KC | 203 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ IND | 276 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs DEN | 79 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs SF | 318 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ SEA | 229 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BAL | 244 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs TEN | 233 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ JAX | 204 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs TB | 207 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ LA | 188 | under |