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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETCompletions · 21 · median of 10 books ·
52Signal · under 2178% · 7 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 9Cleared the number in 2 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 30.3 a game recently
Expected completions: 22.0 against 21 · over 48%, under 52% (if it doesn't land exactly on 21)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 21 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -9 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 19 under | −2.0 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 17 under | −4.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 19 under | −2.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 17 under | −4.0 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 19 under | −2.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 25 over | +4.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 20 under | −1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 21 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 15 under | −6.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 30 over | +9.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 9 | 78% under | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 78% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- betPARX 20.5
- BetRivers 20.5
- BetMGM 20.5
- Bally Bet 20.5
- PrizePicks 21
- Hard Rock Bet 21.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 21.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 21.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 21.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
- FliffMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 30 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 21 | push |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 20 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 25 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 17 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 20 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 21 | push |