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Cam Ward
TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 0.5 at ESPN Bet ·
47Signal · over 0.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.5 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 0.7 against 0.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 0 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.510 books, no line disagreementBB · PX2 · BR · MGM · FAN · DK · FD · FL · HR · ESPN· best price at 0.5: BB, PX2, BR -200
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 1 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 1 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 0 | under |