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CeeDee Lamb
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 82.5 at BetMGM ·
53Signal · under 82.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 11.5 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 95.4 yds against 82.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 82.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -106 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 111 over | +28.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 51 under | −31.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 46 under | −36.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 4 under | −78.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 44 under | −38.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 153 over | +70.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 112 over | +29.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 189 over | +106.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 9 under | −73.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 70 under | −12.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 83.5
- Underdog 79.5
- FanDuel 80.5
- ESPN Bet 80.5
- Hard Rock Bet 81.5
- Fliff 81.5
- BetMGM 82.5
- PrizePicks 82.5
- DraftKings 83.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 83.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 83.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 83.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 81.5 to 80.5
- FliffMoved from 82.5 to 81.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 84.5 to 82.5
- Bally BetMoved from 82.5 to 83.5
- betPARXMoved from 82.5 to 83.5
- BetRiversMoved from 82.5 to 83.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 81.5 to 83.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 82.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 70 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 189 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 112 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 153 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 44 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 46 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 51 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 111 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 121 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 112 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 75 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 66 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 85 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 74 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 110 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 112 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 110 | over |