Charlie Woerner

ATL vs CIN · Sun 9:30 AM ET

Receiving Yards · 4.5 · median of 2 books ·

54Signal · over 4.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.4 a game recently
vs CIN · ×1.15 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 5.0 yds against 4.5 · over 46%, under 54%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -4

Each game against 4.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-19	SF	0 under	−4.5
2025-11-09	IND	14 over	+9.5
2025-11-23	NO	24 over	+19.5
2025-12-11	TB	12 over	+7.5
2025-12-21	ARI	3 under	−1.5
2026-09-20	CAR	0 under	−4.5
2026-10-05	NO	0 under	−4.5
2026-10-11	BAL	13 over	+8.5
2026-10-25	SF	9 over	+4.5
2026-11-01	TB	0 under	−4.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

4.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 4.5
2026-11-01	@ TB	0	under
2026-10-25	vs SF	9	over
2026-10-11	vs BAL	13	over
2026-10-05	@ NO	0	under
2026-09-20	vs CAR	0	under
2025-12-21	@ ARI	3	under
2025-12-11	@ TB	12	over
2025-11-23	@ NO	24	over
2025-11-09	@ IND	14	over
2025-10-19	@ SF	0	under
2025-09-21	@ CAR	-5	under