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Chig Okonkwo
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at BetMGM ·
53Signal · under 3.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.8 against 3.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | JAX | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CLE | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PHI | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | IND | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYG | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 7 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.58 books, no line disagreementESPN · PX2 · DK · BR · HR · BB · FD · MGM
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 7 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs NYG | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs IND | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PHI | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 3 | under |