← NFL board
Chris Bell
MIA vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 20.5 at Underdog ·
46Signal · over 20.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 7Cleared the number in 4 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.4 a game recently
- vs DET · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 21.4 yds against 20.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 20.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -20| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 25 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 0 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 67 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 0 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 0 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 25 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | NE | 31 over | +10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% over | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
20.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | vs NE | 31 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 67 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 25 | over |