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Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 44.5 · median of 9 books ·
60Signal · under 44.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 10Cleared the number in 1 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
- vs ATL · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 30.8 yds against 44.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 44.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -8 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 14 under | −30.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 29 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 41 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 34 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 20 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 43 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 41 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 18 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 15 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 53 over | +8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 9 / 10 | 90% under | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 90% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 46.5
- DraftKings 42.5
- PrizePicks 42.5
- ESPN Bet 44.5
- FanDuel 44.5
- Hard Rock Bet 44.5
- Fliff 44.5
- betPARX 46.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 46.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 46.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 45.5 to 42.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 44.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 53 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 15 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 18 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 41 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 43 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 20 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 34 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 41 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 29 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 53 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 40 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 66 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 67 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 43 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 72 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 57 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 82 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 92 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 88 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 52 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 73 | over |