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Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 60.5 · median of 10 books ·
45Signal · over 60.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 12.8 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 58.3 yds against 60.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 60.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -37| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 73 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 117 over | +56.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 140 over | +79.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 23 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 68 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 23 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 75 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 52 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 68 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 64 over | +3.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 59.5 · best price DK, ESPN -110
- DraftKings 59.5 -110 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- ESPN Bet 59.5 -110 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Underdog 59.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 60.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 60.5 -115
- Fliff 60.5 -120
- PrizePicks 60.5
- betPARX 62.5 -113
- BetRivers 62.5 -114
- Bally Bet 62.5 -118
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 60.5 to 59.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 58.5 to 60.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 60.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 64 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 68 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 52 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 75 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 23 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 68 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 140 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 117 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 73 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 53 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 89 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 81 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 30 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 106 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 25 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 129 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 54 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 57 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 49 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 55 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 69 | over |